Turkey’s latest investor roadshow in London and New York is less a ceremonial promotion campaign than a test of whether global capital believes Ankara’s economic normalization story has moved from promise to execution. Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek, joined by Central Bank Governor Fatih Karahan, is taking Türkiye’s macroeconomic program, reform agenda and sectoral investment case directly to senior executives, chief economists and analysts at major global investment firms, at a moment when foreign investors are again looking at the country, but still pricing in high inflation, policy credibility and regulatory execution risk.
A Roadshow Built Around Credibility
According to Hürriyet Daily News, Şimşek began the January 2026 program in London with eight to ten meetings planned daily during the first three days of the week, before moving to New York on January 15 for larger investor gatherings and smaller group meetings. The same report said Karahan accompanied him, giving investors direct access to both fiscal and monetary policy leadership. The agenda included Türkiye’s 2025 performance, 2026 priorities, structural reforms and investment opportunities.
Daily Sabah, citing the Treasury and Finance Ministry, later reported that Şimşek held 20 separate meetings in London with more than 500 investors from institutions managing over $58 trillion in assets. He also met senior executives and Türkiye country managers from Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s and Fitch. That detail matters. For global funds and strategic investors, rating agency perception is not a side issue. It affects sovereign risk premia, corporate funding costs, bank lines, acquisition financing and the return thresholds used in project appraisal.
The addition of New York to the roadshow reflects a broader re-engagement with international capital markets. Türkiye had already resumed a more orthodox policy mix after mid-2023, but the government now needs to convert portfolio inflows and conference interest into longer-cycle foreign direct investment. For FDI, the central question is not only whether yields are attractive today. It is whether investors can underwrite a five to ten year operating plan in local currency, tax, labor, energy, permitting and export conditions.
The Macro Case Investors Are Being Asked To Reprice
The message Şimşek is taking abroad rests on disinflation, fiscal discipline and a more sustainable external balance. Daily Sabah reported that Şimşek told London investors the government’s priorities remained price stability, fiscal discipline and a sustainable current account balance. His presentation said the budget deficit-to-GDP ratio was expected to fall to 2.9 percent from 4.7 percent in 2024 and 5.1 percent in 2023. It also said the foreign exchange-protected lira deposit scheme had dropped from $143 billion in August 2023 to about $100 million by January 2026, while net reserves excluding swaps had improved from minus $60.5 billion in May 2023 to $70.1 billion.
The disinflation record is real, but incomplete. Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye data, based on TurkStat releases, showed annual consumer inflation at 31.75 percent in July 2026, down from 32.11 percent in June and 30.89 percent at end-2025. The central bank held its policy rate at 37 percent in July 2026, according to Trading Economics and market reports. In August 2026, Governor Fatih Karahan raised the bank’s end-2026 inflation forecast to 28 percent while keeping the interim target at 24 percent, according to Daily Sabah and Reuters-based reporting carried by international outlets.
For investors, that creates a mixed signal. Türkiye offers nominal growth, a large domestic market and improving policy predictability, but inflation remains high enough to complicate wage planning, supplier contracts, lease negotiations and working capital management. The IMF’s country page for Türkiye, updated after the February 2026 Article IV consultation, projected 2026 real GDP growth at 2.9 percent and consumer price inflation at 28.6 percent. That is a stabilization path, not yet a low-inflation environment.
Rating agencies have acknowledged the policy shift. Moody’s upgraded Türkiye to Ba3 in July 2025 and said the move reflected a stronger track record of effective policymaking, including central bank adherence to policies that ease inflationary pressures and restore confidence in the lira. Fitch affirmed Türkiye at BB- with a stable outlook in July 2026, while S&P Global maintained its BB-/B rating with a stable outlook. These are still below investment grade ratings, but the direction of travel has improved since the period of acute investor concern over policy volatility.
FDI Momentum Is Improving, But The Composition Matters
Türkiye’s official FDI data gives the roadshow a stronger factual base than in previous cycles. The Presidency’s Investment and Finance Office reported in February 2026 that Türkiye attracted $13.1 billion of FDI in 2025, a 12.2 percent year-on-year increase, citing Central Bank balance of payments data. The office said the Netherlands was the largest investor with $2.863 billion, followed by Luxembourg with $1.164 billion and Kazakhstan with $1.138 billion. Germany, the United States, France, the United Arab Emirates, Switzerland, the United Kingdom and Ireland also ranked among leading source countries.
Sectorally, the same official release said wholesale and retail trade accounted for 32 percent of 2025 inflows, manufacturing 31 percent and information and communication 14 percent. Şimşek said FDI excluding real estate reached $10.7 billion, the highest level in a decade. That is significant because real estate inflows, while important for balance of payments, do not carry the same productivity, technology transfer and export benefits as manufacturing plants, logistics centers, R&D operations or digital infrastructure.
Türkiye’s 2025 FDI Projects Report, published by the Investment and Finance Office, provides more operational detail. It said Türkiye attracted 475 greenfield FDI projects in 2025, expected to generate $21.1 billion in capital expenditure and 47,251 jobs. Project numbers rose 27 percent and capital expenditure increased 62 percent compared with 2024. Manufacturing remained the backbone, with 262 projects and $8.44 billion in capital expenditure, while ICT and internet infrastructure reached $6.742 billion, driven by data centers and 5G-related investments.
Cross-border M&A also strengthened. The same report recorded 124 deals in 2025, up from 93 in 2024, with disclosed volume of $6.7 billion. Software and IT services led deal numbers with 45 transactions, followed by business services and financial services. The United States led by deal count with 23 transactions, followed by the United Kingdom with 13 and Germany with 11. For foreign investors, this shows two parallel routes into Türkiye: greenfield establishment for production and infrastructure, and acquisitions for software, services, finance and platform companies.
The Sector Pitch: Manufacturing, Digital Infrastructure And Green Transition
The government’s investment narrative is increasingly built around “quality FDI,” not only headline capital inflows. Türkiye’s FDI Strategy for 2024-2028 aims to raise the country’s share of global FDI to 1.5 percent by 2028 and its share of FDI into Central and Eastern Europe, the Middle East and North Africa to 12 percent. The Investment Office’s strategy materials identify global value chains, digital transformation, climate investment, high-quality employment, high-end services and regional development as priority profiles.
That aligns with global trends. UNCTAD’s World Investment Report 2026 said global FDI rose 6 percent to $1.6 trillion in 2025, but the recovery remained uneven. In this environment, countries that can offer market access, logistics depth, skilled labor and targeted incentives have an advantage, particularly as companies diversify supply chains around geopolitical risk, carbon regulation and tariff uncertainty.
Türkiye is trying to position itself as a nearshoring base for Europe, the Middle East and Central Asia. The Investment Office says international companies accounted for about 31 percent of Türkiye’s exports in the 2006-2021 period, and 61 percent of exports by FDI companies were medium-high and high technology products. The country’s customs union with the European Union, industrial base and geographic access are central to that case.
Incentives are another pillar. Türkiye’s HIT-30 program, announced in July 2024, offers a $30 billion package for high-tech and green investment. The Investment Office said the program targets electric vehicles, battery production, semiconductors and energy technology, including a $4.5 billion battery incentive package. Reuters reported at the time that President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan also announced a $5 billion package aimed at lifting annual electric vehicle production capacity to one million units.
The green transition adds both opportunity and compliance pressure. ICAP Carbon Action reported that Türkiye’s first Climate Law was adopted by parliament on July 2, 2025 and published in the Official Gazette on July 9, creating the legal basis for a national emissions trading system. Law firm Gide noted that the law could help Turkish exporters reduce exposure to the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism by allowing domestic carbon costs to be recognized against CBAM liabilities, depending on implementation. For manufacturers exporting steel, cement, aluminum, fertilizers, electricity or downstream products to Europe, carbon accounting is becoming part of market entry and operating strategy.
What Investors Must Still Navigate
The opportunity is real, but it is not plug-and-play. A foreign manufacturer evaluating Türkiye must decide whether to establish a wholly owned subsidiary, acquire a local platform, enter a joint venture, locate in an organized industrial zone, use a free zone or negotiate project-based incentives. Each route has different implications for incorporation, taxation, customs, labor compliance, land use, environmental permits and government approvals.
Incentives require particular care. Türkiye’s investment support system can include VAT exemptions, customs duty exemptions, tax reductions, social security premium support, interest support, land allocation and project-based benefits. But eligibility depends on sector, region, investment size, technology content, employment commitments and export orientation. Investors need to model not only headline support, but also timing, documentation, clawback risk and how incentives interact with transfer pricing, withholding tax, VAT recovery and import-export procedures.
Regulatory liaison is equally important. Projects in energy, data centers, logistics, defense-adjacent manufacturing, healthcare, fintech and mining may require sector-specific permits or coordination with ministries, municipalities and regulators. Government relations, in the practical sense, means understanding which approvals are required, how timelines work, what documentation is expected and how to maintain compliance after launch.
Execution risk is often underestimated. A board approval in London or New York does not build a plant in Kocaeli, İzmir, Bursa, Ankara or Gaziantep. Site selection, supplier qualification, recruitment, customs brokerage, utility connections, construction management, local procurement and project management determine whether the investment case survives contact with reality. Expo and trade-fair representation can also matter for investors testing demand, distributors or partners before committing capital, particularly in machinery, defense, food, health, textiles and industrial technology.
What This Means For Foreign Investors
The London and New York roadshow signals that Türkiye wants to be judged again as an investable operating market, not only as a high-yield emerging market trade. The data gives Ankara a stronger case than it had several years ago: FDI rose to $13.1 billion in 2025, greenfield projects expanded, M&A activity recovered, inflation is lower than its peak and policy communication is more orthodox. Yet the investment decision still turns on execution, local compliance and sector-specific economics.
For foreign investors, the practical next step is disciplined market entry work. That means testing demand, benchmarking locations, assessing incentives, choosing the right incorporation and corporate structuring route, mapping legal and tax obligations, and engaging regulators early where approvals are material. For export-oriented projects, import-export rules, customs planning, CBAM exposure and supplier localization need to be built into the model from the start. For acquisitions, tax, legal, financial and operational due diligence should focus not only on valuation, but on post-deal integration and regulatory continuity.
An FDI advisory firm such as fdiconsultancy.com sits at that implementation layer: market entry strategy, company incorporation, investment incentives, legal and tax compliance, government relations, expo representation, import-export facilitation and project management. The roadshow may open the conversation with global capital. Turning that interest into a functioning Turkish operation requires local execution, regulatory fluency and a clear plan for operating through both the upside and the remaining macroeconomic uncertainty.